The Randy Newman Song That Alerted the World to His Songwriting Brilliance

Brilliant songwriters often go unrecognized by the public at large when they’re just getting started in their careers. But there’s typically a song somewhere near the beginning of things that makes people stand up and take notice. For Randy Newman, that song was “I Think It’s Going To Rain Today”.

Already covered several times before Newman recorded it himself in 1968, its melodic brilliance and lyrical honesty would set the tone for one of the finest songwriting careers ever.

“Think” Piece

Randy Newman knew well the world of music from an early age, considering that he had a trio of uncles who composed music for motion pictures. But he also drew much of his musical influence from the swampy R&B of New Orleans, where he spent a good deal of his youth.

In the early 60s, Newman started placing songs with other artists. His work resonated with British audiences in the mid-60s. Artists like Gene Pitney, Alan Price, and Cilla Black scored UK hits with his compositions. Newman didn’t consider himself to be a performer until an opportunity was dropped in his lap.

Lenny Waronker, a good friend of Newman’s, secured an influential role at Warner Bros. Records. At first, he brought Newman into the fold as an arranger and session keyboard player. Eventually, Newman snagged a record deal, leading to his self-titled 1968 debut album. “I Think It’s Going To Rain Today”, with Newman singing and playing piano over some somber orchestration arranged by Van Dyke Parks, appeared on the record.

Blame It on the “Rain”

By the time Randy Newman recorded the song, luminaries like Judy Collins, Eric Burdon, and Dusty Springfield had already covered it. Speaking about the song to Rolling Stone, Newman talked about how the contrasts within it made him feel like he’d missed the mark:

“I have always loved those vanilla-kind of chords, straight-ahead Stephen Foster. And once I had a style, I crystallized it: The music is emotional – even beautiful – and the lyrics are not. The honest truth is the song bothered me because of the darkness – it felt sophomoric, too maudlin.”

The rest of the world felt quite different about the track, although it took them a while to recognize it. As an album, Randy Newman was an utter flop and nearly derailed Newman’s recording career. Luckily, critics and other artists propped him up and helped bring “I Think It’s Going To Rain Today” and other Newman classics like it to a wider audience.

Newman’s vocal for “I Think It’s Going To Rain Today” conveys the utter desolation and sorrow that he feels as much as the punch-in-the-gut lyrics. “Broken windows and empty hallways,” Newman mewls. “A pale dead moon in a sky streaked with gray.”

Later, the narrator bemoans an utter lack of human compassion. “Tin can at my feet,” he sings. “Think I’ll kick it down the street/That’s the way to treat a friend.” Even in the final verse, with him promising to “help the needy”, it’s hard to believe in the “human kindness overflowing” that he references, not with that melody pulling him ever nearer to complete devastation and loss.

The covers of this brilliant song just kept coming over the years. We think that the creator of “I Think It’s Going To Rain Today” did the definitive take, however. That’s when Randy Newman the performer first started to hang right in there with Randy Newman the songwriter.

(Photo by David Farrell/Redferns)